IMF further reduces Nigeria’s 2020 growth rate to -5.4%

IMF further reduces Nigeria’s 2020 growth rate to -5.4%

By Emma Ujah

The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has additional downgraded Nigeria’s financial outlook for the remainder of 2020 to -5.Four % progress, worse than sub-Saharan Africa’s common of -3.2%.

The Fund had projected a 2.5 % progress price for Nigeria in 2020 in the beginning of the yr however following the outbreak of the COVID-19, it decreased the forecast to -3.4 % in April.

In its World Economic Outlook Growth Projections launched yesterday, the IMF stated, nevertheless, that Nigeria, which recorded a 2.2 % progress price, final yr, may bounce again to a 2.6 progress subsequent yr.

Global progress was projected at –4.9 % in 2020, 1.9 proportion factors under the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast.

It stated:  “The COVID-19 pandemic has had a extra damaging affect on exercise within the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the restoration is projected to be extra gradual than beforehand forecast.

“In 2021 world progress is projected at 5.Four %. Overall, this would depart 2021 GDP some 6½ proportion factors decrease than within the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020. The hostile affect on low-income households is especially acute, imperiling the numerous progress made in decreasing excessive poverty on the earth for the reason that 1990s.

“As with the April 2020 WEO projections, there’s a higher-than-usual diploma of uncertainty round this forecast. The baseline projection rests on key assumptions concerning the fallout from the pandemic.

‘’In economies with declining an infection charges, the slower restoration path within the up to date forecast displays persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; larger scarring (harm to produce potential) from the larger-than-anticipated hit to exercise through the lockdown within the first and second quarters of 2020; and a success to productiveness as surviving companies ramp up obligatory office security and hygiene practices.

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“For economies struggling to regulate an infection charges, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an extra toll on exercise. Moreover, the forecast assumes that monetary situations—which have eased following the discharge of the April 2020 WEO—will stay broadly at present ranges.

“ Alternative outcomes to those in the baseline are clearly possible, and not just because of how the pandemic is evolving. The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects—as the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update discusses—raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline.”

The IMF stated all international locations, together with people who had seemingly handed peaks in infections, ought to make sure that their well being care programs had been adequately resourced and that the worldwide group should vastly step up its assist of nationwide initiatives, together with monetary help, to international locations with restricted well being care capability.


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